[Linux-aus] Vista v. Linux Movie

[Andrae Muys]

On 06/02/2007, at 5:48 PM, Nigel Cunningham wrote:
> On Tue, 2007-02-06 at 15:52 +1100, Brent Wallis wrote:
>>> But what _is_ working is viral memes, subversive stuff that sees the
>>> underdog win, and seeing 'the truth' behind the corporate gloss.
>> I have to disagree very strongly here...the underdog winning...etc  
>> has
>> never won me business....ever... and only serves to alienate  
>> potential
>> clients. When we interview in the place I am working at the moment,
>> any potential candidate that brings these types of arguments up as
>> valid support for Linux is never called back, no matter how great a
>> tech they may be.... Please understand that this technique is only a
>> very small part of what got us this far but it will not, under any
>> circumstance hold water going forward. You will chase your potential
>> clients away if you promote as such. The "underdog nonsense" was old
>> in 2001 and even older now. Linux is already in big corporates...it
>> aint subversive any more...:-) MS use the "underdog" card to belittle
>> Linux and FOSS in the marketplace...don;t help them keep doing it!
>>
>> Marketing Rule 4: People like to be part of something and will always
>> fall on the side of majority opinion and taste.
>>
>> That rule is played over and over and over by politicians and it  
>> works
>> for them now in the same way it did 500 years ago...the trick is to
>> get the general population to feel good about a move.
>
> If that 'Marketing Rule' was true, none of us would be using or  
> working
> on Linux or working on minority projects (like Suspend2).
>
> Hmm. This whole reply seems very negative. Sorry about that, but I
> really disagree with some of the things you've written.

Which is unfortunate, because his 'Marketing Rules' are spot on.  The  
problem you are having is that you belong to a very small niche in  
the market - and one that follows a very different set of rules to  
the 'People' Brent is talking about (at least when it comes to  
technology).  The missing piece of this puzzle is to remember your  
innovation product cycle.

Innovator,
Early Adopter,
Early Majority,
Late Majority.

Every innovator knows about linux already - most of them have tried  
it and many of them are using it already.  By now I suspect most of  
the early adopters are in the same boat.  These are the groups we  
will reach via viral marketing, and going in blind is a waste of  
time.  Ignorance of linux isn't the problem here, they already know  
about linux, and presumably have their reasons why they aren't using  
it.  Those reasons may not be rational, and they may not be up to  
date, but unless we have done the research and *know* what they are  
nothing we do will change anything.

But of course this entire thread was never about innovators or early  
adopters.  Anthony's post was about attacting the early majority to  
linux, and they play by different rules to everyone on this list.   
The dominating characteristic of the majorities is that they are very  
risk adverse.  The underdog/elite-minority perception attacts the  
early adopters; mixed/multiple messages are taken as indications of  
vibrancy and opportunity - a chance to stand out and do something  
different; find an edge on the competition.  The majorities see  
confusion, a lack of maturity, risk.  They will decide to wait until  
the early adopters finally figure out the 'right way' to move  
forward, and then they will head that way.  That's why the 'underdog'  
is the absolute worst image you can project here.

Be aware that linux wasn't mentioned in the previous paragraph, this  
is because this is a general characteristic of the marketplace as  
applicable to fashion as it is to computer operating systems.  Also  
be aware that none of these descriptions are derogatory.  It takes a  
lot of time and effort to be able to mitigate the risks of moving  
early sufficiently to allow a person to do it.  I haven't been able  
to move earlier than the early majority on computer hardware for  
years (and don't ask me about fashion); my attention has been focused  
on programming languages and technologies - as a result I get to  
innovate there (where I earn my living).

But the point remains that in any given market, the vast majority of  
people 90%+ are in the early and late majorities - and if that is the  
market you want to reach, then you will do well to listen to people  
like Brent; even better to find a marketing suit, take them out for  
coffee or a drink, and listen to them for a while.

That's what I do.

Andrae Muys

P.S.  As a consequence, I know a few marketing types who grok FOSS -  
I listen to them, they listen to me, we both learn something.  I'll  
see if any of them are interested in discussing this.

-- 
Andrae Muys
andrae at netymon.com
Principal Mulgara Consultant
Netymon Pty Ltd