[Linux-aus] Political Recognition for Technology in Australia - was Re: Seeking feedback - EFA Citizens Not Suspects campaign

[Russell Coker]

On Fri, 28 Jun 2013, John Mann <john.mann at monash.edu> wrote:
> Put another way, how much do people spend on fixed line communications?
> A $30 per month phone line rental (voice, or ADSL) is $360 per year, or
> $7,200 over 20 years.
> Tap some portion of that rental fee, and you can pay off a large
> infrastructure build cost.

$360 per annum profit on a $4921 investment is a 7.3% return on investment.  So 
if the entire $360 was profit (IE no costs on maintaining the network, 
repairing damage, renting offices, etc).

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2011/06/relying-on-stock-market-averages/

The above web site suggests that average stock market returns are less than 
7.4% (usually rates like 9% or 11% are quoted).  If the article in question is 
correct then a 7.3% return on investment would be better than average.

But then if you count the fact that the NBN won't make a profit for some years 
then it looks even worse.  If the first 5 years make no profit and you just miss 
out on interest returned from other investments at a rate of 6% then the 
investment becomes $4921*1.06^5 == $6585.

Then a $360 per annum profit becomes a mere 5.5% return on investment.

Now a commercial organisation in the position of making a sub-par return on 
investment for something that's designed to be a monopoly would immediately 
look at ways of making extra money.  Probably by stuff that goes against net-
neutrality.  This is a real concern.

Really the NBN either needs to be run by the government or sold off at a price 
significantly lower than the build cost with rules preventing anti-competitive 
behavior.

-- 
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