<div dir="ltr">There are a few small issues with this overall theory.<div><br></div><div style>First is you seem to think everyone is in the same situation as you and your parents. </div><div style><br></div><div style>The average connection in Australia for ADSL is under 4Mbs. This is not due to 'proper configuration', but due to the overstaturation of the copper network with ADSL (the spec allows for 10% of lines in a trunk) and poor quality copper. This cannot be fixed without replacing copper. This is so slow you cannot stream HD, which is becoming a huge thing in areas that can support it. For example you could pay a fixed annual cost and stream NBA, or NHL whenever you want. Polling is showing that people do want better, faster, and more stable internet.</div>
<div style><br></div><div style>The expectation is that all services will go through the NBN including TV, Internet, Phone and anything else people can think of. Fiber is an economical, and highly upgradable, comms bearer that does not degrade easily.</div>
<div style><br></div><div style>If your going to start taking cost make sure you factor in the $1B it is costing Telstra to maintain the copper network, since that is going to be paid by the Govt under the Lib plan.</div>
<div style><br></div><div style>Your erecting a non existent straw man, ignoring key pieces of information, and then arguing against something that does not exist to prove a point.</div><div style><br></div></div><div class="gmail_extra">
<br clear="all"><div>-Matthew Lye<br><br> Leadership is responsibility, not privilege, Action, not position, Guidance, not knowledge, and outcome, not disposition.<br><No trees were harmed during this transmission. However, a great number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced></div>
<br><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Sun, Jun 30, 2013 at 10:21 AM, Russell Coker <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:russell@coker.com.au" target="_blank">russell@coker.com.au</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div class="im">On Sun, 30 Jun 2013, Russell Stuart <<a href="mailto:russell-linuxaus@stuart.id.au">russell-linuxaus@stuart.id.au</a>> wrote:<br>
> On Fri, 2013-06-28 at 17:24 +1000, Russell Coker wrote:<br>
> > > The NBNCo's business plan also states that the company will be debt<br>
> > > free by about 2030, at which point the company will be returning<br>
> > > $2-3 billion a year directly into the Government budget.<br>
> ><br>
> > If there's $2 billion returned to the government then there will<br>
> > probably be at least $2.5 billion in revenue.<br>
> ><br>
> > The 8.1 million fixed lines are due to the fact that you need one line<br>
> > for every person who's speaking at the same time, one line for every<br>
> > modem or fax machine, and phone lines at offices.<br>
><br>
> Fixed internet connections are growing at the same rate.<br>
<br>
</div>Why would fixed Internet connections grow to more than one per household and<br>
office?<br>
<div class="im"><br>
> > I'm quite happy with my ADSL service and I'm not going to switch to the<br>
> > NBN unless ADSL is turned off or the NBN is cheaper. My parents and<br>
> > mother in law are happy with Optus cable and also aren't going to change<br>
> > unless they get a cheaper offer or they are compelled to change - in<br>
> > which case Kogan 3G might be the winner.<br>
><br>
> You do know you won't have a choice? Under the current business plan<br>
> all those competing services will be shut down, so if you want to<br>
> continue to use a fixed line you will be using the NBN. It is one of<br>
> the manoeuvres that makes the NBN business plan look so sound. Of<br>
> course, that is with the Labor's plan. God knows what will happen with<br>
> the Libs.<br>
<br>
</div>That's what I was afraid of. They can't make a competitive business out of<br>
the NBN so they forcibly close alternatives - just like toll roads.<br>
<br>
Of course there is a choice for people who don't need to transfer a lot of<br>
data. Kogan 3G gives you 6G of data per month for $299 per annum. That's<br>
more than adequate for my parents, they've had 3G as their home Internet<br>
connection before. If the price of home Internet connection is forced up for<br>
my parents and the price of 3G isn't forced up too then my parents will stop<br>
using fixed Internet.<br>
<br>
This is either a problem for NBNco's business model or a problem for us if<br>
they try to prevent companies like Kogan from offering good 3G deals.<br>
<div class="im"><br>
> > The majority of the urban Australian population don't see any need for<br>
> > the type of net access that people on this list want and won't pay any<br>
> > extra for it.<br>
><br>
> Did you pull that little factoid from the air? I don't see how you<br>
> could know what the majority of the urban Australian population want. I<br>
> don't. I do know from polling most of them say they want the NBN, but<br>
> that's not the same thing.<br>
<br>
</div>A significant portion of the urban population are quite happy with ADSL or<br>
cable net access. If they are forced to switch to the NBN that doesn't equate<br>
to choosing to pay more for the NBN. There's also a significant number of<br>
people who just don't need to transfer a lot of data. People who just read<br>
email and do casual web browsing.<br>
<br>
I don't think that the majority of the population do any significant porn<br>
downloads or torrent transfers.<br>
<div class="im"><br>
> It current NBN plans are any guide, they won't be paying any extra for<br>
> it. They are same price as ADSL plans.<br>
<br>
</div><a href="http://www.internode.on.net/residential/fibre_to_the_home/nbn_plans/" target="_blank">http://www.internode.on.net/residential/fibre_to_the_home/nbn_plans/</a><br>
<a href="http://www.internode.on.net/residential/adsl_broadband/easy_naked/" target="_blank">http://www.internode.on.net/residential/adsl_broadband/easy_naked/</a><br>
<br>
Looking at the Internode prices it seems that the ADSL plans have already<br>
increased in price. They now have a 150G "Special" in place of a range of<br>
ADSL prices which included cheaper offerings for smaller quotas. The Internode<br>
NBN offering has nothing for users who want more than 30G of transfer and don't<br>
want to pay $70 (so I would be paying more if I switched now).<br>
<div class="im"><br>
> > I attended an information session at the NBNco office a while ago, my<br>
> > recollection was that it was $24 per month for a port on the router.<br>
> > They made no mention of different rates for different speeds.<br>
><br>
> It's not just different rates for different speeds:<br>
> <a href="http://www.itnews.com.au/News/242323,n.aspx" target="_blank">http://www.itnews.com.au/News/242323,n.aspx</a><br>
<br>
</div>The first thing to note is that the low end of the speed range is 12/1 Mb/s.<br>
That means that people who have ADSL2+ working well and are forced to switch<br>
to the NBN will get a speed loss if they choose a cheaper option.<br>
<br>
Anyone who wants speeds that are comparable to ADSL2+ will have to pay an<br>
extra $6 per month on top of the base fees. This breaks the concept of<br>
providing fast Internet to everyone to promote the development of new<br>
services. If most of the population are saving $6 per month by getting 12/1<br>
speed then any new services inspired by the NBN will be designed for 12/1<br>
speed - IE a lower speed than a properly configured ADSL2+ installation!<br>
<br>
If they had made the minimum speed something higher than ADSL2+ like 50/12<br>
then it might have allowed the development of new technologies for mass use.<br>
<br>
The article you cite says "Wholesale prices were expected to decline in real<br>
and nominal terms over the long-term, according to Prime Minister Julia<br>
Gillard". If that happens then it breaks the idea of the NBN being profitable<br>
in the long-term.<br>
<div class="im HOEnZb"><br>
--<br>
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<br>
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