[Linux-aus] Political Recognition for Technology in Australia - was Re: Seeking feedback - EFA Citizens Not Suspects campaign

[Russell Coker]

On Sun, 30 Jun 2013, Russell Stuart <russell-linuxaus at stuart.id.au> wrote:
> On Fri, 2013-06-28 at 17:24 +1000, Russell Coker wrote:
> > > The NBNCo's business plan also states that the company will be debt
> > > free by about 2030, at which point the company will be returning
> > > $2-3 billion a year directly into the Government budget.
> > 
> > If there's $2 billion returned to the government then there will
> > probably be  at least $2.5 billion in revenue.
> > 
> > The 8.1 million fixed lines are due to the fact that you need one line
> > for every person who's speaking at the same time, one line for every
> > modem or fax machine, and phone lines at offices.
> 
> Fixed internet connections are growing at the same rate.

Why would fixed Internet connections grow to more than one per household and 
office?

> > I'm quite happy with my ADSL service and I'm not going to switch to the
> > NBN unless ADSL is turned off or the NBN is cheaper.  My parents and
> > mother in law are happy with Optus cable and also aren't going to change
> > unless they get a cheaper offer or they are compelled to change - in
> > which case Kogan 3G might be the winner.
> 
> You do know you won't have a choice?  Under the current business plan
> all those competing services will be shut down, so if you want to
> continue to use a fixed line you will be using the NBN.  It is one of
> the manoeuvres that makes the NBN business plan look so sound.  Of
> course, that is with the Labor's plan.  God knows what will happen with
> the Libs.

That's what I was afraid of.  They can't make a competitive business out of 
the NBN so they forcibly close alternatives - just like toll roads.

Of course there is a choice for people who don't need to transfer a lot of 
data.  Kogan 3G gives you 6G of data per month for $299 per annum.  That's 
more than adequate for my parents, they've had 3G as their home Internet 
connection before.  If the price of home Internet connection is forced up for 
my parents and the price of 3G isn't forced up too then my parents will stop 
using fixed Internet.

This is either a problem for NBNco's business model or a problem for us if 
they try to prevent companies like Kogan from offering good 3G deals.

> > The majority of the urban Australian population don't see any need for
> > the type of net access that people on this list want and won't pay any
> > extra for it.
> 
> Did you pull that little factoid from the air?  I don't see how you
> could know what the majority of the urban Australian population want.  I
> don't.  I do know from polling most of them say they want the NBN, but
> that's not the same thing.

A significant portion of the urban population are quite happy with ADSL or 
cable net access.  If they are forced to switch to the NBN that doesn't equate 
to choosing to pay more for the NBN.  There's also a significant number of 
people who just don't need to transfer a lot of data.  People who just read 
email and do casual web browsing.

I don't think that the majority of the population do any significant porn 
downloads or torrent transfers.

> It current NBN plans are any guide, they won't be paying any extra for
> it.  They are same price as ADSL plans.

http://www.internode.on.net/residential/fibre_to_the_home/nbn_plans/
http://www.internode.on.net/residential/adsl_broadband/easy_naked/

Looking at the Internode prices it seems that the ADSL plans have already 
increased in price.  They now have a 150G "Special" in place of a range of 
ADSL prices which included cheaper offerings for smaller quotas.  The Internode 
NBN offering has nothing for users who want more than 30G of transfer and don't 
want to pay $70 (so I would be paying more if I switched now).

> > I attended an information session at the NBNco office a while ago, my
> > recollection was that it was $24 per month for a port on the router. 
> > They made no mention of different rates for different speeds.
> 
> It's not just different rates for different speeds:
> http://www.itnews.com.au/News/242323,n.aspx

The first thing to note is that the low end of the speed range is 12/1 Mb/s.  
That means that people who have ADSL2+ working well and are forced to switch 
to the NBN will get a speed loss if they choose a cheaper option.

Anyone who wants speeds that are comparable to ADSL2+ will have to pay an 
extra $6 per month on top of the base fees.  This breaks the concept of 
providing fast Internet to everyone to promote the development of new 
services.  If most of the population are saving $6 per month by getting 12/1 
speed then any new services inspired by the NBN will be designed for 12/1 
speed - IE a lower speed than a properly configured ADSL2+ installation!

If they had made the minimum speed something higher than ADSL2+ like 50/12 
then it might have allowed the development of new technologies for mass use.

The article you cite says "Wholesale prices were expected to decline in real 
and nominal terms over the long-term, according to Prime Minister Julia 
Gillard".  If that happens then it breaks the idea of the NBN being profitable 
in the long-term.

-- 
My Main Blog         http://etbe.coker.com.au/
My Documents Blog    http://doc.coker.com.au/