[Linux-aus] Microsoft drops prices to compete with Linux on low-cost laptops

[Brent Wallis]

Hi,

On Mon, May 12, 2008 at 4:48 PM, Brenda Aynsley <bpa at iss.net.au> wrote:

> Bret Busby wrote:
> > On Sun, 11 May 2008, Glen Turner wrote:
> >
> >> Date: Sun, 11 May 2008 22:29:36 +0930
> >> From: Glen Turner <gdt at gdt.id.au>
> >> To: Linux Australia <linux-aus at linux.org.au>
> >> Subject: [Linux-aus] Microsoft drops prices to compete with Linux on
> low-cost
> >>     laptops
> >>
> >> <
> http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/145719/microsoft_to_limit_capabilities_of_cheap_laptops.html
> >
> >>
> >> Microsoft Xp Home to be US$32 (US$26 in China & India).  Minus another
> >> US$10 if signs Market Development Agreement  [Importantly, the MDA
> >> prevents the signatory from recommending Linux if a Windows alternative
> >> is available.]
> >>
> >> Offer restricted to
> >>  CPU = Via | Intel Atom | others <= 1GHz
> >>  RAM <= 1GB
> >>  Hard disk <= 80GB
> >>  Screen <= 10.2in
> >>
> >> Interesting how low Microsoft will go when faced with real
> >> competition.
> >>
> >>
> >
> > Interesting, given that I understand that, as from the end of next
> > month, Microsoft Windows XP is no longer allowed by Microsoft, to be
> > sold.
>
>
> keep up Brett ;), XP Home is to remain on the market until 2010 I think
> it is, XP pro is withdrawn at the end of this financial year but
> security updates continue to 2014 or something like that
> http://support.microsoft.com/lifecycle/?p1=3221
>
>
That site has been up since '98 and the dates change regularly. What they
say on that particular page and what they do are not related.
We gave up on trusting these  dates many years ago. I'll bet now that they
will change again before June 30.


> Ballmer: You want XP, we'll keep XP
> http://www.news.com/8301-10784_3-9927721-7.html
>

No they won't...Vista has been a disaster and the only way they can recoup
the cost to develop it is to force it on people.
They need to get XP out of the market as quickly as possible, this is their
business model and their achilles heel. What will happen is the cost of XP
will rise....and become more difficult to obtain/use/support. They will tell
you its available...but it may only be via OEM and under very specific
terms. You will still have to pay for a Vista licence any way...which means
all businesses will have to take on software assurance whether they like it
or not come June 30 this year for every new PC purchased...even though they
get a downgrade to XP. Why run XP when it costs the same as Vista?

MS just released their worst quarter results ever.

A 24% drop in the Operating Systems division profit!

It has accelerated their share price decline even more...and it's being
heading south slowly since 2000.
In fact, the equities market talk is getting quite loud about Balmer. There
is a lot of gossip getting around that he will be asked to leave to either
get Bill back or someone else. Either way, Balmers poor performance has
institutional investors baying for blood. My bet is that he will fall on his
sword ( or get pushed onto it by the institutional investors) by end of this
calendar year unless he comes up with something spectacular. Watch out for
some radical and or big spending/deep cost cutting  announcements from
Balmer over the next few months....these will be specifically designed to
make him look good and not much else, they will be specifically designed to
show that he is doing something to try and stop the companies now rapidly
accelerating decline.

As of this date:
HP will not supply XP pre-installed past June 30 this year,
Dell were going to do the same but have announced only last week that they
will do a downgrade past that date.
Lenovo have not announced anything yet.

I reckon HP and IBM will follow Dell....too many sites out there that would
suffer if Vista was forced onto them. There are too many techs in MS land
that havent even looked at Vista yet..there are many apps out there that
just won;t work with it and probably never will.

You also can not get XP eOpen licences any more nor can not get anyone to
sell you a boxed XP professional nor can you buy media for installing same.

The ONLY reason MS have done the thing with XP home on ultra low cost PCs is
the major threat that emerging low end market has on their entire business.
(reread the Cathedreal and the Bazaar....the emergence of the Eee PC/OLPC
....very low cost consumer computing was for put forward in that doc as a
possible outcome of the Open Source movement and the beginning of the end
for the OS as being the be all and end all of personal computing...a place
where MS can;t go without killing themselves outright). The word is that the
Asus offering has found a market that others want to play in...its a market
that has found a very surprising and strong consumer demand....rumour has it
that the other majors are looking at over 200 different models of ultra low
cost PCs between them that could be released onto the market over the next 2
years. They are doing the work in that area because the Vista's poor sales
have affected their own sales.

The best part of all is that the XP home versions can NEVER be as featured
or complete as the Linux versions on low cost PCs.... MS will fail in this
market, (or try and wreck it) because it is at 90degrees to their
established business model. If the ULCPC market really takes off, it
invalidates their idea of what an OS is supposed to do in the MS business
model..... I reckon we have found a niche where they can not go...the
hallmarks of a true market change are in the wind...it depends on how the
hardware boys play the game because their fortunes could be affected just as
much as MS's.

Interesting times indeed...:-)

Rgds
BW

> cheers
> brenda
>
> --
> Brenda Aynsley, FACS, PCP
> Director Oz Business Partners http://www.ozbusinesspartners.com/
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>
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>
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