[Linux-aus] Windows Is Free, The impact of pirated software on free software

[Jon 'maddog' Hall]

On Thu, 2007-08-16 at 10:38 +0930, Andrew Pam wrote:
> "A recent column on Zdnet, by Adrian Kingsley-Hughes, discussed the 
> reasons why people won't change from a retail operating system to a free 
> one. The implication is that Linux can't even give away their software.
> 
> That sounds pretty dire. Windows retails for around 200 US dollars, give 
> or take depending on which version and where you buy. If the above 
> statement by Mr Kingsley-Hughes was true, it means that Linux is so bad 
> that people would gladly pay 200 dollars to avoid it. Do users really 
> think Linux is that lame?"
> 
> http://tlug.jp/articles/Windows_Is_Free
> 
> Share and enjoy,
> 		Andrew

According to the BSA (and I am not talking about the Boy Scouts of
America), the piracy rate of commercial software is lowest in the
countries that can (for the most part) afford to pay for it, and highest
in the countries that can not afford to pay for it.  No surprise here.

Their report shows that 29% of all the commercial software in Australia
is pirated (down from 31% a few years ago), whereas in countries like
Vietnam and China (where the average person makes 2-3 USD per day) the
piracy rate is 88-82% (down from 92% a few years ago).  The United
States has a 21% piracy rate.  I will note that these numbers are
actually lower than I have seen before.

Yes, in most of the "emerging countries", the Microsoft software *IS*,
in effect, gratis.  And I have had Microsoft Product Managers tell me
that they do "turn their backs" on software piracy in certain cases,
giving bug fixes and training on software they know is pirated, just so
the people will not use Free Software instead.

And there is the corruption, the fact that Microsoft can pay
governments, institutions and even people to use their software ,
advertise their software, and insist on their software rather than use
Free Software.  Where do they get the money to do this?  From the people
who DO pay for the software.

So why doesn't Free Software just expand like crazy?  Well, the article
hit on a couple of issues that still do exist.  But the real reason at
this point is just "inertia".  Market demand for Microsoft, the fact
that your brother/uncle/sister/mother uses Microsoft, most devices can
run some version of Microsoft, most applications run on Microsoft, and
those applications are pirated also, etc. etc.

But what Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is missing in his article is that Linux
*IS* winning.  Just because it has not taken over every desktop in the
past five years does not mean it is not making good progress.  And just
like you push against a large object in the vacuum of space and you do
not see it moving at first, eventually it starts to move, then gather
speed, then heaven help you if you get caught between it and some really
unmovable object....

Linux also does not need to have 100% or even 50% of the desktop market
to succeed either.  I will have considered Linux successful after only
20% of the desktop market, because that is when all the controller
vendors will support it and the desktop application vendors will all
support it.  Then rapidly Linux will increase to 30, 49 and 50% of the
desktop market, or more.

Its inertia folks.  We have seen it before, and we will see it again.
But soon it will be on our side....and that is the scary part for
Microsoft, because deep in their little beady brains, they know it.

md